383
AXPZ20 KNHC 212127
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAY 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED NEAR 97.5W AT 1200 UTC HAS BECOME ILL
DEFINED, WITH MODEST CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH THERE. THE
WAVE HAS THEREFORE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE 1800 UTC SURFACE
ANALYSIS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10.5N75W TO 05N79W TO 09N86W TO
10.5N108W TO 09.5N119W TO 07.5N127W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
07.5N127W TO 08N134W TO BEYOND 06.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 02N TO 10N E OF 96W, AND FROM
03N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 98W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 06.5N TO 10N W OF 128W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE REGION, AS A BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS FROM JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA,
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE W OF ISLA GUADALUPE TO NEAR
24N120W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER, THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO FORCE THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WELL TO THE W TO EXTEND SOUTH OF IT, AND INTO THE WATERS
OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO
GENTLE NW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BAJA WATERS, AND GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF CABO SAN LARAZO
TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE NEAR THE COAST
OF CABO SAN LUCAS. SEAS ARE MODERATE, 4 TO 6 FT, IN NW SWELL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT TO 7 FT NW OF ISLA GUADALUPE,
AND SLIGHT INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
LATE WEEK, LEADING TO MODERATE SEAS AND MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS.
LOOK FOR MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY GAP WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY SAT. BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD MODESTLY ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE W, LEADING TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS CONTINUED
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT HAVE BEGIN
TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY. GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF PANAMA EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 05N. ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
WATERS OFFSHORE OF WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA, AND HAS BEGUN
TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY SOUTH OF THE GULF OF PANAMA AND ACROSS
THE WATERS OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 3
TO 5 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE AREA WATERS TO ABOUT 03N. SOUTH OF
03N, MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND ECUADOR, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN
SOUTHERLY SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF AMERICA WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO MODERATE GAP WINDS PULSING TO
STRONG EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION. OTHERWISE, GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION
S OF 10N AND E OF 90W THROUGH SAT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A 1034 MB HIGH
NEAR 36N147W ACROSS 30N140W THEN SOUTHWARD TO THE ITCZ. THIS
PATTERN IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 7
TO 10 FT NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 130W. GENTLE TO MODERATE
N TO NE WINDS WITH 5 TO 8 FT IN MIXED NW AND S SWELL CONTINUE
NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH, BETWEEN 130W AND 120W.
SOUTH OF THE ITCZ, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT
5 TO 8 FT IN MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELL PREVAIL. CONVECTION REMAINS
ACTIVE ABOUT THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 120W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO SUBSIDE
SLIGHLTY TO BETWEEN GENTLE TO MODERATE, WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT,
RESPECTIVELY, BY THIS WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED S OF THE
ITCZ INTO THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ BETWEEN 100W AND 120W THROUGH
SAT.
STRIPLING
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