654
AXPZ20 KNHC 220146
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAY 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0145 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N105W TO 08N125W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N125W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 09N
BETWEEN 84W AND 96W, AND FROM 02N TO 12N BETWEEN 102W AND 123W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 10N W OF
135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE REGION, SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE MODERATE, 4 TO 6 FT,
IN NW SWELL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT TO 7 FT NW OF
ISLA GUADALUPE, AND SLIGHT INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
LATE WEEK, LEADING TO MODERATE SEAS AND MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
MODESTLY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE W BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, LEADING TO
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA, WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS, AND SEAS OF 5-6 FT,
ARE OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE N GAP WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS TO 4 FT, ARE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-7 FT PREVAIL BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4-5 FT, ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE GAP WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH EACH
NIGHT ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL PREVAIL INTO THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION S OF 10N AND E OF
90W THROUGH SAT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NW OF THE AREA TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS N OF THE ITCZ AND
WEST OF 135W, WITH MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ WEST OF 110W. MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE S OF
01N, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE DISCUSSION
WATERS. SEAS OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS ARE IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE,
EXCEPT LOCALLY REACHING 8 FT N OF 05N AND W OF 135W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS
NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO BETWEEN GENTLE TO
MODERATE, WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT, RESPECTIVELY, BY THIS WEEKEND.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED S OF THE ITCZ INTO THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ BETWEEN 100W AND 120W THROUGH SAT.
AL
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