329
AXPZ20 KNHC 222043
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N75W TO 05N78W TO 10N88W TO
06.5N97W TO 11N116W TO 08.5N124W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07.5N126W
TO 07N133W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01.5N TO 11N BETWEEN 82W AND
97W, AND FROM 08N TO 10N W OF 133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 15N BETWEEN 99W AND 125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS AS
THE NE PACIFIC RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TO ABOUT 120W, AND
THEN THROUGH THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS TO 108W. RECENT
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED LIGHT TO GENTLE NW TO N
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS, AND MODERATE TO
FRESH NW WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF BAJA SUR AND CABO SAN LUCAS.
SEAS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN NW SWELL, EXCEPT TO
7 FT NW OF ISLA GUADALUPE AND NEAR THE COAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOWED A FEW PLUMES OF
MODERATE WESTERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO S WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE GENERALLY 3 FT OR
LESS, EXCEPT TO 4 FT IN THE AREA OF WESTERLY GAP WINDS IN THE
SOUTH. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINING MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS TO TEHUANTEPEC, WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT. MIDDLE-
LEVEL TROUGHING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION OFFSHORE OF TEHUANTEPEC SOUTH OF
14N, BUT HAS DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SAT, LEADING TO MODERATE SEAS AND
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY GAP WINDS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY SUN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD MODESTLY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE W SUN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS BY SUN AFTERNOON, LEADING TO MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUE, WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION AND WATERS OF SOUTHERN NICARAGUA THIS AFTERNOON,
AND HAVE EXPANDED WESTWARD TO 93W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THIS
AREA. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE GULF OF PANAMA. SOUTH OF 05N, RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER
DATA DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS, EXTENDING TO
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 5-6 FT IN S SWELL BETWEEN COLOMBIA
AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, AND 4-5 FT ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRIFTING NW ACROSS THE NEAR
AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND EXTEND
WELL OFFSHORE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE GAP WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH EACH
NIGHT ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY SUN, THEN INCREASE
TO FRESH TO STRONG SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL PREVAIL
INTO THE WEEKEND. FRESH SW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE GALAPAGOS
AREA WATERS ON SUN, WHEN SEAS THERE WILL BUILD TO NEAR 8 FT.
EXPECT PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION S OF 10N AND E OF 90W
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, THROUGH THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS TO NEAR 108W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADE WINDS
BETWEEN ITCZ AND 22N, TO THE WEST OF 130W, WHERE SEAS ARE 7 TO 9
FT IN N TO NE SWELL. MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE
N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ TO 20N AND W OF 110W. MODERATE
WINDS ARE FOUND S OF 05N, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE
OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE
5-7 FT RANGE IN MIXED SW AND N TO NE SWELL. SEAS ARE ALSO
REACHING NEAR 8 FT ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 02N THE W OF 110W, PER
RECENT SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA, AS SW SWELL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL
LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS NORTH OF
THE ITCZ TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO BETWEEN GENTLE TO MODERATE, WITH
SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT, RESPECTIVELY, BY THIS WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE
IN WINDS IS EXPECTED S OF THE ITCZ INTO THE WEEKEND. LARGE SW
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AS SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT OCCURRING S OF 05N WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD OF 120W THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STRIPLING
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