451
AXPZ20 KNHC 230200
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N110W TO 11N120W TO
07N133W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N133W TO BEYOND 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
02N TO 10N BETWEEN 83W AND 123W, AND FROM 07N TO 13N W OF 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA,
EXCEPT LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE
4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS, AND 2-3 FT OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SAT, LEADING TO MODERATE SEAS AND
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY GAP WINDS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY SUN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD MODESTLY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE W SUN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS BY SUN AFTERNOON, LEADING TO MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUE, WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS. SEAS OFFSHORE OF BAJA ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO NEAR 8 FT BY MON NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS. SEAS ARE 5-6 FT IN S SWELL BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, AND 4-5 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE GAP WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH EACH
NIGHT ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY SUN, THEN INCREASE
TO FRESH TO STRONG SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL PREVAIL
INTO THE WEEKEND. FRESH SW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE GALAPAGOS
AREA WATERS THIS WEEKEND, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 8 FT ON SUN.
EXPECT PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION S OF 10N AND E OF 90W
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, THROUGH THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS TO NEAR 104W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND
MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADE
WINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N, AND WEST OF 130W, WHERE SEAS ARE 7
TO 8 FT IN N TO NE SWELL. MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ TO 20N AND W OF 110W.
MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND S OF 05N, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ELSEWHERE OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE
IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE IN MIXED SW AND N TO NE SWELL. SEAS ARE
REACHING NEAR 8 FT ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 02N THE W OF 105W AS SW
SWELL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL
LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS NORTH OF
THE ITCZ TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO BETWEEN GENTLE TO MODERATE, WITH
SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT, RESPECTIVELY, BY THIS WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE
IN WINDS IS EXPECTED S OF THE ITCZ INTO THE WEEKEND. LARGE SW
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AS SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT OCCURRING S OF 05N WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD OF 120W THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AL
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