502
AXPZ20 KNHC 231511
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAY 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N79W TO 08N96W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 08N96W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 11N AND W OF 125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA,
EXCEPT LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE
4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS, AND 2-3 FT OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY, LEADING TO MODERATE SEAS AND MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
MODESTLY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE W SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BAJA
WATERS BY SUN AFTERNOON, LEADING TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUE, WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SEAS. SEAS OFFSHORE OF BAJA ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
NEAR 8 FT BY MON NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION WATERS. SEAS ARE 5-6 FT IN S SWELL BETWEEN
COLOMBIA AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, AND 4-5 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE GAP WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH AT
NIGHT ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH MON NIGHT. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. FRESH SW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE GALAPAGOS AREA
WATERS THIS WEEKEND, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 8 FT ON SUN.
EXPECT PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION S OF 10N AND E OF 90W THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, THROUGH THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS TO NEAR 105W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO
20N, AND WEST OF 120W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN N TO NE SWELL.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF THE ITCZ. MODERATE
WINDS ARE FOUND S OF 04N, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE
OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 5-7
FT RANGE IN MIXED SW AND N TO NE SWELL. SEAS ARE REACHING NEAR 8
FT ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 03N THE W OF 105W AS SW SWELL CONTINUES
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS NORTH
OF THE ITCZ TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO GENTLE TO MODERATE, WITH
SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT, RESPECTIVELY, BY THIS WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE
IN WINDS IS EXPECTED S OF THE ITCZ THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE SW
SWELL WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS
SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT OCCURRING S OF 05N WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OF 120W THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ERA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page