353
AXPZ20 KNHC 232049
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAY 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE HAS REACHED THE FAR
EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS, WITH AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 80W AND N OF
05N, MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE, MAINLY N OF 01N AND E OF
88W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N92W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 08N92W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 15N AND W OF 114W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA,
EXCEPT LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE
4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS, AND 2-3 FT OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT, LEADING TO MODERATE SEAS AND
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY GAP WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD MODESTLY ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE W SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS BY SUN AFTERNOON,
LEADING TO MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA
THROUGH TUE, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS. SEAS OFFSHORE OF
BAJA ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO NEAR 8 FT BY MON NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION WATERS. SEAS ARE 5-6 FT IN S SWELL BETWEEN
COLOMBIA AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, AND 4-5 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE GAP WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH AT
NIGHT ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH MON NIGHT. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. FRESH SW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE GALAPAGOS AREA
WATERS THIS WEEKEND, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 8 FT ON SUN.
EXPECT PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION S OF 10N AND E OF 90W THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, THROUGH THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS TO 105W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N,
AND WEST OF 115W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN N TO NE SWELL.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF THE ITCZ. MODERATE
WINDS ARE FOUND S OF 04N, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE
OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 5-7
FT RANGE IN MIXED SW AND N TO NE SWELL. SEAS ARE REACHING 9 FT
SOUTH OF 05N AND W OF 100W AS SW SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS NORTH
OF THE ITCZ TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO GENTLE TO MODERATE, WITH
SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS IS
EXPECTED S OF THE ITCZ THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE SW SWELL WILL
IMPACT THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS SEAS TO AROUND
9 FT OCCURRING S OF 05N WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OF 120W
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ERA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page