521
AXPZ20 KNHC 240201
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAY 24 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 81W AND N OF 05N, MOVING W
AT 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N84W TO 08N91W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 08N91W TO 10N125W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 08N AND E OF 95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
02N TO 10N BETWEEN 108W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA,
EXCEPT LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE
4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS, AND 2-3 FT OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT, LEADING TO MODERATE SEAS AND
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY GAP WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD MODESTLY ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE W SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS BY SUN AFTERNOON,
LEADING TO MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA
THROUGH TUE, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS. SEAS OFFSHORE OF
BAJA ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO NEAR 8 FT BY MON NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION WATERS. SEAS ARE 4-6 FT IN S SWELL BETWEEN
COLOMBIA AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, AND 4-5 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE GAP WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH AT
NIGHT ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH MON NIGHT. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. FRESH SW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE GALAPAGOS AREA
WATERS THIS WEEKEND, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 8 FT ON SUN.
EXPECT PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION S OF 10N AND E OF 90W THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, THROUGH THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS TO 105W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADE WINDS N OF THE
ITCZ TO 20N, AND WEST OF 110W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 7 FT. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF THE ITCZ. MODERATE WINDS ARE
FOUND S OF 04N, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE
DISCUSSION WATERS. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE
IN MIXED SW AND N TO NE SWELL. SEAS ARE REACHING 8 FT SOUTH OF
05N AND W OF 100W AS SW SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS NORTH
OF THE ITCZ TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO GENTLE TO MODERATE, WITH
SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND IS EXPECTED S OF THE
ITCZ THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ROUGH SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AL
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