489
AXPZ20 KNHC 242106
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAY 24 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 82W AND N OF 05N, DRIFTING
WEST AT 5 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 08N85W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 08N85W TO 09N125W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 11N
BETWEEN 85W AND 95W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA,
EXCEPT LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE
4-5 FT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS, AND 2-3 FT OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD MODESTLY ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE W THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS BY THIS EVENING,
LEADING TO MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS. A SET OF NW
SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
MIDWEEK, BRINGING ROUGH SEAS. LOOKING AHEAD, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL SUPPORT FRESH SW TO W GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TUE AND WED.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A MORNING SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS VERIFIED A PLUME OF FRESH
TO STRONG GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REACHING AS FAR
WEST AS 88W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN COLOMBIA
AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN S SWELL BETWEEN
COLOMBIA AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, AND 4-5 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE GAP WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH AT
NIGHT ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH MON NIGHT. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS TODAY. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
FRESH SW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE GALAPAGOS AREA WATERS TODAY,
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 9 FT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND WEST OF
110W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 7 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE ITCZ. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS ARE
ALSO FOUND SOUTH OF THE ITCZ. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE
5-7 FT RANGE IN MIXED SW AND N TO NE SWELL. SEAS ARE REACHING 8
FT PRIMARILY IN SOUTHERLY SWELL SOUTH OF 05N BETWEEN 90W AND
120W.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS AND SEAS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. NW SWELL WILL ENTER WATERS NORTH OF 25N BY
MIDWEEK, BRINGING ROUGH SEAS OVER THESE WATERS. TRADEWINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. THE COMBINATION OF
WIND WAVES DEVELOPING FROM THESE TRADES, AND NW SWELL WILL BRING
ROUGH SEAS OVER THESE WATERS.
CHRISTENSEN
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