771
AXPZ20 KNHC 261559
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 26 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 90W AND N OF 04N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN THE WAVE AND 95W,
AND WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 04N TO 08N.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA TO 10N86W TO 07N95W TO 09N106W TO 09N120W AND TO
12N132W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 123W-132W, WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 118W-123W AND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 82W-85W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N
BETWEEN 120W-126W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS
WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 96W-105W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N135W TO THE VICINITY OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES. MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS ARE
FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE OVER THE OPEN
WATERS, AND 1 TO 3 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SET OF NW SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
BEGINNING WED, SUPPORTING COMBINED SEAS PEAKING TO AROUND 10 FT.
FRESH S TO SW GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA STARTING LATE TONIGHT, DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON, START
UP AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT AND DIMINISH EARLY ON THU.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION
ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN S
SWELL BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, AND 4-6 FT
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE
PAPAGAYO WILL BECOME MODERATE EAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AFTERWARD. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU. LARGE SW SWELL WILL
ENTER THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR FRI, BRINGING ROUGH SEAS TO
THE WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND COLOMBIA.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND WEST OF
115W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE ITCZ. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS ARE
FOUND SOUTH OF THE ITCZ. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT
RANGE IN MIXED SW AND N TO NE SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. LARGE NW TO N SWELL GENERATED BY A DEEP LOW WELL N OF
THE AREA WILL ENTER WATERS NORTH OF 27N BY MIDWEEK, WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS EXPECTED IN EXCESS OF 8 FT SPREADING AS FAR SOUTH AS 20N
BY FRI, THEN SUBSIDING. THE COMBINATION OF WIND GENERATED WAVES
DEVELOPING FROM FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ AND
W OF 120W, AND A MIX OF N AND S SWELL, WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SEAS
OVER THESE WATERS.
AGUIRRE
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