890
AXPZ20 KNHC 262148
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 26 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 91W AND N OF 04N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EAST
OF THE WAVE WITHIN 60 NM OF 07N90W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA TO 10N85W TO 07N95W TO 09N105W TO 10N118W TO 11N124W AND
TO 12N133W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
240 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 125W-133W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
113W-125W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 82W-84W, ALSO WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 95W-102W AND FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN
118W-126W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 105W-113W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N135W TO THE VICINITY OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WEST
OF CABO CORRIENTES. MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS ARE FUNNELING
INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE OVER THE OPEN
WATERS, AND 1 TO 3 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE OUTER
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SET OF NW SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
BY BEGINNING WED, SUPPORTING COMBINED WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING TO
JUST BELOW 1 12 FT. FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW GAP WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA STARTING TONIGHT,
DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON, THEN START UP AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT AND
DIMINISH EARLY ON THU.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE EARLY FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION HAVE DIMINISH TO MOSTLY GENTLE SPEEDS. SEAS THERE ARE 4-6
FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION WATERS. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN S TO SW SWELL BETWEEN
COLOMBIA AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, AND 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE.
AN AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PRESENT FROM
04N TO 10N BETWEEN 82W-87W.
FOR THE FORECAST, RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LIGHT
TO GENTLE RANGE. MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU. LARGE SW
SWELL WILL ENTER THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR FRI, BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS TO THE WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND
COLOMBIA. THE SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N AS A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 15N134W TO 10N140W, AND A COLD FRONT HAS
RECENTLY PUSHED SOUTH TO THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS ALONG A POSITION
FROM NEAR 30N130W TO 29N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH IS GENERALLY SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE
WINDS NORTH OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR 20N AND WEST OF ABOUT 115W.
THE MOST CONCENTRATION OF THE FRESH WINDS IS NW OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO NEAR 23N, AND ALSO NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT AS INDICATED
BY RECENT ASCAT SATELLITE DATA PASSES. WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THESE
WATERS, AND THOSE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE IN THE RANGE OF 6-9
FT IN NW TO N SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS ARE FOUND SOUTH
OF THE ITCZ. WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT
RANGE IN N TO NE SWELL MIXED WITH SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTHWARD
WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH WED NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE WED NIGHT, OR ON THU. THE SWELL IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS N
OF 25N BY WED NIGHT, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT REACHING AS
FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT 14N BY LATE THU. THE COMBINATION OF THE SWELL
WITH WIND GENERATED WAVES PRODUCED BY THE FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE ROUGH SEAS OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THESE WATERS BY LATE THU.
AGUIRRE
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