806
AXPZ20 KNHC 270202
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 27 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 91W AND N OF 04N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EAST
OF THE WAVE WITHIN 60 NM OF 07N90W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N105W TO 11N125W TO
11N137W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 10N AND E OF 116W, AND FROM 04N
TO 23N BETWEEN 117W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES. MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS ARE
FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE OVER
THE OPEN WATERS, AND 2 TO 4 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SET OF NW SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
BY BEGINNING WED, SUPPORTING COMBINED SEAS PEAKING TO JUST BELOW
12 FT. FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW GAP WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN
COLOMBIA AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN S TO
SW SWELL BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, AND 4-6 FT
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LIGHT
TO GENTLE RANGE. MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU. LARGE
SW SWELL WILL ENTER THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR FRI,
BRINGING ROUGH SEAS TO THE WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
AND COLOMBIA. THE SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS GENERALLY SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH NE TRADE WINDS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO NEAR 20N AND
WEST OF ABOUT 120W. WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE
6-9 FT RANGE, A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS, WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND SEAS OF 7-9 FT, TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AS WELL AS TO THE SOUTH. WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THESE WATERS
ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD
WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH WED NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE WED NIGHT, OR ON THU. THE SWELL IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS N
OF 25N BY WED NIGHT, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT REACHING AS
FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT 14N BY LATE THU. THE COMBINATION OF THE SWELL
WITH WIND GENERATED WAVES PRODUCED BY THE FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ROUGH SEAS OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THESE WATERS BY LATE THU.
AL
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