334
AXPZ20 KNHC 270801
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAY 27 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 93W AND N OF 04N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N109W TO 10N125W TO
10N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 84W AND 93W, AND
FROM 02N TO 13N BETWEEN 105W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES. FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ARE
FUNNELING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH GAP WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE IN THE 5 TO 7 FT
RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS, 4-6 FT IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND 2 TO 4 FT IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SET OF NW SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
TODAY, SUPPORTING COMBINED SEAS PEAKING TO JUST BELOW 12 FT.
FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW GAP WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS. SEAS ARE 5-6 FT IN S TO SW SWELL BETWEEN
COLOMBIA AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, AND 4-5 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LIGHT
TO GENTLE RANGE. MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU. LARGE
SW SWELL WILL ENTER THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR FRI,
BRINGING ROUGH SEAS TO THE WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
AND COLOMBIA. THE SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE
TRADE WINDS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO NEAR 20N AND WEST OF
ABOUT 120W. WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 6-9 FT
RANGE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS, AND SEAS OF 7-10 FT, ARE NORTH OF THE FRONT. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS WELL
AS TO THE SOUTH. WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT
RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD
WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT, OR ON THU. THE SWELL IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS N
OF 25N BY TONIGHT, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT REACHING AS
FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT 14N BY LATE THU. THE COMBINATION OF THE SWELL
WITH WIND GENERATED WAVES PRODUCED BY THE FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ROUGH SEAS OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THESE WATERS BY LATE THU.
AL
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