370
AXPZ20 KNHC 272059 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 27 2026
CORRECTED ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 95W FROM 03N TO 12N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
180 NM EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 03N TO 06N, AND WITHIN 120 NM WEST
OF THE WAVE FROM 04N TO 08N.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
CORRECTED
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 08N95W TO
10N105W TO 10N118W TO 08N127W AND TO 12N135W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH
BETWEEN 108W-112W, AND WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
112W-118W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN
119W-126W, AND WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 123W-125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES. FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ARE
FUNNELING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH GAP WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE IN THE 5 TO 7 FT
RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS, 4 TO FT IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, 3 TO 5 FT IN THE CENTRAL PORTION AND 2 TO 4
FT IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SET OF NW SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
TODAY, SUPPORTING COMBINED SEAS PEAKING TO JUST BELOW 12 FT.
FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW GAP WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE DATA PASS SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION, AND WEST FROM
THERE TO NEAR 88W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION PER AN OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS. SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT IN S TO SW SWELL BETWEEN
COLOMBIA AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, AND 4 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LIGHT
TO GENTLE RANGE. MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU. LARGE
SW SWELL WILL ENTER THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR FRI,
BRINGING ROUGH SEAS TO THE WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
AND COLOMBIA. THE SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE
TRADE WINDS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO NEAR 20N AND WEST OF
ABOUT 130W, AND ALSO FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W AS
SEEN IN THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES. WAVE
HEIGHTS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE PRIMARILY IN
LONG-PERIOD NW TO N SWELL. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM WESTERN
ARIZONA, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS FAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA,
AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS TO NEAR
27N127W. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 10 FT IN LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL ARE NORTH OF
THE FRONT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AS WELL AS TO ITS SOUTH. WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THESE
WATERS ARE IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE AS INDICATED IN OVERNIGHT
ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD
WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT, OR ON THU. THE SWELL IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS N OF
25N BY TONIGHT, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT REACHING AS FAR SOUTH
AS ABOUT 14N BY LATE THU. THE COMBINATION OF THE SWELL WITH WIND
GENERATED WAVES PRODUCED BY THE FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ROUGH SEAS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
THESE WATERS BY LATE THU.
AGUIRRE
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