945
AXPZ20 KNHC 272355 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 27 2026
CORRECTED REMAINDER OF THE AREA SECTION
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 12N95W TO 01N96W,
MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 04N TO 08N.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO 11N86W
TO 08N95.5W TO 09N101W TO 09N112W TO 10N120W TO 08N127W AND TO
10N136W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 110W-117W, ALSO WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 117W-120W AND WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 120W-124W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 106W-109W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 86W-91W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. MEANWHILE, A COLD
FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM WESTERN ARIZONA, SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS TO NEAR 26N123W. LATEST
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES INDICATE GENTLE TO MODERATE
NW TO N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES, AND ALSO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SE
TO S FRESH WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. GEN LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS, EXCEPT
FOR HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL OVER THE NW
PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM 30N TO PUNTA EUGENIA. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, 3 TO 5 FT IN THE CENTRAL SECTION AND 2 TO 4 FT IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH WINDS MOSTLY AT FRESH
SPEEDS FROM FRI THROUGH EARLY ON SUN. A SET OF NW SWELL HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE THROUGH THE OUTER NW WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.
THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THU, THEN BEGIN TO DECAY BEGINNING LATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. YET, ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL WILL BE ENTERING THE WATERS
FROM 30N TO PUNTA EUGENIA ON SUN, REACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE WATERS BETWEEN PUNTA EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO ON MON, THEN
BEGIN TO DECAY MON NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW GAP WINDS WILL
PULSE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT, THEN DIMINISH
THU AFTERNOON.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION, AND WEST FROM
THERE TO NEAR 88W ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS ARE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS. SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT IN S TO SW SWELL BETWEEN
COLOMBIA AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, AND 4 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN MAINTAINS
WINDS IN THE LIGHT TO GENTLE RANGE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE STATE THROUGH FRI, THEN AT MODERATE STATE FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LARGE SW SWELL WILL ENTER THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR FRI,
BRINGING ROUGH SEAS TO THE WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
AND COLOMBIA. THE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BEGINNING LATE ON
SUN.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
CORRECTED
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO NEAR 20N AND WEST OF ABOUT 130W, AND
ALSO FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W AS SEEN IN THE LATEST
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES. WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THESE WATERS
ARE IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE PRIMARILY IN LONG-PERIOD NW TO N SWELL. A
COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM WESTERN ARIZONA, SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD
OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS TO NEAR 26N123W, WHERE IT BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE TO 26N130W AND TO 26N140W. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ALONG WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 10 FT IN LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL ARE NORTH OF THE FRONT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE
N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ALSO TO ITS S. WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THESE
WATERS ARE IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE AS REVEALED BY RECENT ALTIMETER
SATELLITE DATA PASSES.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY THU WHILE WEAKENING. IT WILL DISSIPATE
BY EARLY THU EVENING. THE SWELL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS N OF 24N BY LATE TONIGHT, WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT 15N BY THU
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SWELL WITH WIND GENERATED WAVES
PRODUCED BY THE FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE ROUGH SEAS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THESE
WATERS GOING INTO FRI. AFTERWARD, THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
REMAINING SWELL SET WILL MERGE WITH A SOUTHERLY SWELL SET OVER
THE CENTRAL WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO
9 FT COVERING THE AREA FROM JUST S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 03.4S BETWEEN 98W AND 120W, AND FROM 07N TO 18N
BETWEEN 120W AND 140W.
AGUIRRE
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