255
AXPZ20 KNHC 280203
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAY 28 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 94W NORTH OF 02N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 10N107W TO 08N130W TO
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 85W AND 95W, AND FROM 03N TO 13N
BETWEEN 106W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE TO NEAR 25N122W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN
THE 8-11 FT RANGE OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE, AND 5-6 FT OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
ELSEWHERE, SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, AND 2-3 FT OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW SWELL OVER THE WATERS OFF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THU BEFORE DECAYING. ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL
WILL ENTER THE WATERS N PUNTA EUGENIA ON SUN. THIS SWELL WILL
SPREAD SOUTH TO COVER THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MON
BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE. FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW GAP WINDS
WILL PULSE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
AND COLOMBIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE SW SWELL WILL ENTER THE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR FRI, BRINGING ROUGH SEAS TO THE
WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY
SUN BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO NEAR 20N AND WEST OF ABOUT 120W.
WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE IN A
MIX OF TRADEWIND SWELL AND LONG-PERIOD NW TO N SWELL. MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 7 TO 11 FT IN LONG- PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL ARE NORTH OF 25N. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ALSO TO ITS SOUTH. WAVE HEIGHTS OVER
THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. NW TO N SWELL N OF 25N WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD,
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT 15N
BY THU EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SWELL WITH WIND GENERATED
WAVES PRODUCED BY THE FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ROUGH SEAS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THESE
WATERS GOING INTO FRI. AFTERWARD, THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
REMAINING SWELL SET WILL MERGE WITH A SOUTHERLY SWELL SET OVER
THE CENTRAL WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO
9 FT COVERING THE AREA FROM JUST S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 03.4S BETWEEN 98W AND 120W, AND FROM 07N TO
18N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W.
AL
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