831
AXPZ20 KNHC 280804
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 28 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 95W NORTH OF 02N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 10N110W TO 09N120W TO
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 86W AND 96W, AND FROM 03N TO 13N
BETWEEN 106W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. FRESH TO STRONG GAP
WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE, AND 5-6 FT OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SOUTHWARD TO
NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE, SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5
FT RANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. SEAS
OF 4-5 FT ARE NOTED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH 2-3
FT SEAS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW SWELL OVER THE WATERS OFF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA TODAY BEFORE DECAYING. ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL WILL
ENTER THE WATERS N PUNTA EUGENIA ON SUN. THIS SWELL WILL SPREAD
SOUTH TO COVER THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MON BEFORE
STARTING TO SUBSIDE.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
AND COLOMBIA, AS WELL AS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS, REACHING 6 FT SOUTH OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE SW SWELL WILL ENTER THE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR FRI, BRINGING ROUGH SEAS TO THE
WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY
SUN BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO NEAR 20N AND WEST OF ABOUT 120W.
WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE IN A
MIX OF TRADEWIND SWELL AND LONG-PERIOD NW TO N SWELL. SEAS OF 7
TO 10 FT IN LONG- PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL ARE NORTH OF 24N. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ALSO
TO ITS SOUTH. WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 5 TO 7
FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. NW TO N SWELL N OF 25N WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD,
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT 15N
BY THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SWELL WITH WIND
GENERATED WAVES PRODUCED BY THE FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ROUGH SEAS OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THESE WATERS GOING INTO FRI. AFTERWARD, THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE REMAINING SWELL SET WILL MERGE WITH A SOUTHERLY
SWELL OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND, WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT COVERING THE AREA FROM JUST S OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 03.4S BETWEEN 98W AND
120W, AND FROM 07N TO 18N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W.
AL
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