878
AXPZ20 KNHC 281551
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAY 28 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 12N97W TO 03N98W. IT
IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN
THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N79W, THEN NORTHWESTWARD TO 10N90W TO 09N98W
TO 11N105W TO 10N113W TO 09N120W AND TO 08N130W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 08N130W TO 08N135W AND TO 11N140W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH
BETWEEN 110W-115W, ALSO WITHIN 90 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
78W-80W AND WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 78W AND
80W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
04N TO 10N BETWEEN 107W-113W, AND WITHIN 180 NM NORTH OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 119W-125W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 85W-95W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. FRESH TO STRONG GAP
WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 7 TO 10 FT RANGE IN
NW SWELL OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE, AND 5 TO 6 FT OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
ELSEWHERE, SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN
WATERS OFF MEXICO. SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT ARE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW SWELL OVER THE WATERS OFF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA TODAY BEFORE DECAYING. ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL WILL
ENTER THE WATERS N PUNTA EUGENIA ON SUN. THIS SWELL WILL SPREAD
SOUTH TO COVER THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MON BEFORE IT
STARTS TO SUBSIDE.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
AND COLOMBIA, AS WELL AS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4 TO 5 FT
RANGE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS, REACHING 6 FT SOUTH OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AS NOTED IN RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA
PASSES.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE SW SWELL WILL ENTER THE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR FRI, BRINGING ROUGH SEAS TO THE
WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY
SUN BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE
WINDS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO NEAR 20N AND WEST OF ABOUT
120W. WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE
IN A MIX OF TRADEWIND SWELL AND LONG-PERIOD NW TO N SWELL. SEAS
OF 7 TO 10 FT IN LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL ARE NORTH OF 23N AS
INDICATED IN RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES AND BY A FEW
SOFAR OCEAN SPOTTER BUOYS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE
N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ALSO TO ITS SOUTH. WAVE HEIGHTS OVER
THESE WATERS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE AS HIGHLIGHTED
IN RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. NW TO N SWELL N OF 25N WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD,
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT
15N BY THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SWELL WITH WIND
GENERATED WAVES PRODUCED BY THE FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ROUGH SEAS OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THESE WATERS GOING INTO FRI. AFTERWARD, THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE REMAINING SWELL SET WILL MERGE WITH A SOUTHERLY
SWELL OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND, WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT COVERING THE AREA FROM JUST S OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 03.4S BETWEEN 98W AND
120W, AND FROM 07N TO 18N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W.
AGUIRRE
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