992
AXPZ20 KNHC 282205
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAY 28 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W FROM 03N TO 15N. IT IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE COAST AT 07N78W, AND CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD
TO 09N85W TO 09.5N94W TO 10N100W TO 11N107W TO 10N120W TO
08N129W AND TO 08.5N135W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO
09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-86W AND WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 107W-115W, WITHIN 180 NM N
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 88W-92W AND BETWEEN 94W-96W, AND ALSO
WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 94W-97W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 100W-105W, WITHIN
180 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 128W-132W, WITHIN 120 NM NORTH
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 110W-112W AND 115W-122W, AND ALSO WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 124W-127W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO
NEAR 24N123W WHILE A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N135W
SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 19N113W. THE RELATED GRADIENT IS ALLOWING
FOR GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS TO EXIST OVER
THESE WATERS AS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES.
WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL, EXCEPT
FOR SLIGHTER HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 9 FT OVER THE WATERS N
OF PUNTA EUGENIA. WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ARE
ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE IN SPEEDS ALONG WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 7
FT IN NW SWELL, EXCEPT FOR LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN S
TO SW SWELL TO THE S OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN. INSIDE THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SECTION HAVE BECOME FRESH S
TO SW WINDS AND LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 3 TO 5 FT IN THE GULF, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN SW SWELL AT ITS ENTRANCE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR WINDS PULSING TO
STRONG SPEEDS AT NIGHT OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH SAT.
NW SWELL OVER THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL WILL
ENTER THE WATERS N PUNTA EUGENIA EARLY ON SUN. THIS SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
AND COLOMBIA, AS WELL AS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE IN THE 4 TO 5
FT RANGE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS, REACHING TO AROUND 6 FT
SOUTH OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AS NOTED IN RECENT ALTIMETER
SATELLITE DATA PASSES.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE SW SWELL WILL ENTER THE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR FRI, BRINGING ROUGH SEAS TO THE
WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY
SUN BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE
WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO NEAR 21N AND WEST OF ABOUT
120W, AND N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 16N BETWEEN 116W AND 120W.
WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE IN A
MIX OF TRADE WIND SWELL AND LONG-PERIOD NW TO N SWELL. WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 10 FT IN LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL ARE NORTH OF
15N AS INDICATED IN RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES AND
BY A FEW SOFAR OCEAN SPOTTER BUOYS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ALSO TO ITS SOUTH. WAVE
HEIGHTS OVER THESE WATERS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE AFOREMENTIONED NW TO N SWELL WILL COMBINE
WITH WIND GENERATED WAVES PRODUCED BY THE FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS W OF
120W THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE NW TO N
SWELL WILL MERGE WITH A SOUTHERLY SWELL OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS
DURING THE WEEKEND, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT PROJECTED
BY WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE TO COVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE WATERS
SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR
E OF 120W, AND REACHING WESTWARD TO NEAR 140W.
REGARDING POSSIBLE TROPICAL WEATHER: THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK ISSUED BY NHC MENTIONS THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO FORM EARLY NEXT WEEK WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
AGUIRRE
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