336
AXPZ20 KNHC 290405
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAY 29 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 00N NORTHWARD TO WESTERN HONDURAS
WITH AXIS NEAR 89W, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 12N BETWEEN
85W AND 95W.
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N TO 12N WITH AXIS NEAR 99W, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 107W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE COAST AT 07N78W, AND CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD
TO 11N97W TO 07N120W TO 06N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES, NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 77W AND 87W. OTHERWISE,
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND
128W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT ARE ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM NW MEXICO TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR PENINSULA WHILE
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA
OFFSHORES. THE RELATED GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO PUNTA
EUGENIA WITH MAINLY MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT IN NW SWELL. INSIDE
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SECTION REMAIN
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM THE SE WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE
VARIABLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 1
TO 3 FT ALONG THE GULF. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 5 FT IN NW SWELL, EXCEPT FOR SW SWELL ACROSS
THE OFFSHORES FROM MICHOACAN TO CHIAPAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR WINDS PULSING TO
STRONG SPEEDS AT NIGHT OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH SAT.
NW SWELL OVER THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL WILL
ENTER THE WATERS N PUNTA EUGENIA EARLY ON SUN. THIS SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE COSTA RICA
OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW GUSTY N TO NW
WINDS. THIS STRONG CONVECTION ARE LIKELY GENERATING ROUGH SEAS IN
THE REGION. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SW TO W WINDS ARE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AMERICA OFFSHORES WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE
S TO SW WINDS ARE BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SEAS
ARE MAINLY MODERATE IN SW SWELL, EXCEPT FOR ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT SW
OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE SW SWELL WILL ENTER THE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR FRI, BRINGING ROUGH SEAS TO THE
WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY
SUN BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH TO NEAR 21N AND WEST OF ABOUT 120W. WAVE HEIGHTS
OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE IN A MIX OF TRADE
WIND SWELL AND LONG-PERIOD NW TO N SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ALSO TO ITS
SOUTH. WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THESE WATERS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 7
FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE AFOREMENTIONED NW TO N SWELL WILL COMBINE
WITH WIND GENERATED WAVES PRODUCED BY THE FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS W OF
120W THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE NW TO N
SWELL WILL MERGE WITH A SOUTHERLY SWELL OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS
DURING THE WEEKEND, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT PROJECTED
BY WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE TO COVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE WATERS
SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR
E OF 120W, AND REACHING WESTWARD TO NEAR 140W.
REGARDING POSSIBLE TROPICAL WEATHER: THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK ISSUED BY NHC MENTIONS THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO FORM EARLY NEXT WEEK WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EAST PACIFIC.
RAMOS
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