508
AXPZ20 KNHC 290912
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAY 29 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N TO 15N WITH AXIS NEAR 95W,
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 03N TO 16N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N82W, AND CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TO 11N102W
TO 08N122W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N132W AND CONTINUES BEYOND
07N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE, NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 13N
BETWEEN 77W AND 89W. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 128W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA
OFFSHORES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO IS ALLOWING FOR
GENERALLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS FROM CABO SAN LUCAS
TO PUNTA EUGENIA WITH MAINLY MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT IN NW SWELL.
INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SECTION
REMAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM THE SW WHILE GENTLE TO
LOCALLY MODERATE NW WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE 1 TO 3 FT ALONG THE GULF. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE LIGHT
TO GENTLE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 5 FT IN NW SWELL, EXCEPT FOR
SW SWELL ACROSS THE OFFSHORES FROM MICHOACAN TO CHIAPAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR WINDS PULSING TO
STRONG SPEEDS AT NIGHT OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH SAT.
NW SWELL OVER THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL WILL
ENTER THE WATERS N PUNTA EUGENIA EARLY ON SUN. THIS SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS STRONG CONVECTION IS LIKELY
GENERATING GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS IN THE REGION.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SW TO W WINDS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
CENTRAL AMERICA OFFSHORES WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS
ARE BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SEAS ARE MAINLY
MODERATE IN SW SWELL, EXCEPT FOR ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT SW OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE SW SWELL WILL ENTER THE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR TODAY, BRINGING ROUGH SEAS TO THE
WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY
SUN BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF 17N. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE
WINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 21N AND WEST OF ABOUT 130W PER
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN
THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE IN A MIX OF TRADE WIND SWELL AND LONG-PERIOD
NW TO N SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ALSO TO ITS SOUTH. WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THESE
WATERS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE AFOREMENTIONED NW TO N SWELL WILL COMBINE
WITH WIND GENERATED WAVES PRODUCED BY THE FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF
THE ITCZ LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS W OF 130W THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE NW TO N SWELL WILL MERGE
WITH A SOUTHERLY SWELL OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS DURING THE
WEEKEND, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT PROJECTED BY WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO COVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE WATERS SW OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR E OF 120W, AND
REACHING WESTWARD TO NEAR 140W.
REGARDING POSSIBLE TROPICAL WEATHER: THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK ISSUED BY NHC MENTIONS THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO FORM EARLY NEXT WEEK WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EAST PACIFIC.
RAMOS
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