161
AXPZ20 KNHC 291554
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAY 29 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 95W-96W, S OF 15N, MOVING WESTWARD
AT 5-10 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE NOTED FROM 03N TO 16N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N76W TO 09.5N87W TO 11N97W
TO 08N119W TO 09.5N123W TO 06N131W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05.5N132W
AND CONTINUES BEYOND 06N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE, NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 14N E OF 90W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 12N
BETWEEN 106W AND 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH 30N132W TO
NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IS
PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS FROM PUNTA
EUGENIA SOUTHWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BAJA NORTE WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA. NEW NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS THIS
MORNING IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT ACROSS THESE WATERS.
INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SECTION
REMAIN CYCLONIC AT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS, WHILE GENTLE
TO LOCALLY MODERATE W TO NW WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE 3 TO 5 FT NORTH PORTIONS AND 2 TO 4 FT SOUTH AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS. ACROSS THE REMAINING OFFSHORE WATERS TO THE
EAST, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT IN MIXED
NW AND SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, NE PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TO FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD. NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH
THE BAJA WATERS TODAY WILL MERGE WITH SW SWELL SAT THROUGH SUN ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS EASTWARD. NEW N SWELL
WILL THEN ENTER THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA EARLY ON SUN.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MOST
OF THE LOCAL OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING, AND IS MOST NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PAPAGAYO REGION TO THE GULF OF
PANAMA AND NW COLOMBIA. THIS STRONG CONVECTION IS LIKELY
GENERATING STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE
SW TO W WINDS PREVAIL S OF 10N, WHILE WINDS ARE VARIABLE N OF
10N. SEAS ARE MAINLY MODERATE IN SW SWELL, EXCEPT SEAS TO 9 FT S
AND SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE SW
SWELL ENTERING THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR TODAY, BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS TO THE WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND
COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY SUN BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE,
LIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS
THE AREA WATERS THROUGH SAT BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SUN.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF 17N AND WEST OF 110W,
CENTERED ON STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE
TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 21N AND WEST OF ABOUT 120W PER
OVERNIGHT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS
ARE IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE IN A MIX OF TRADE WIND SWELL AND NW
TO N SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH E OF 120W, AS WELL AS S OF THE TROUGH. SEAS ACROSS
THE WATERS S OF THE TROUGH AND ITCZ ARE GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT IN
BUILDING S TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT NW TO N SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND
GENERATED WAVES PRODUCED BY THE FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ
LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS W OF 130W THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE NW TO N SWELL WILL MERGE WITH
SOUTHERLY SWELL OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND, WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT PROJECTED BY WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE TO
COVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE WATERS SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR E OF 120W, AND REACHING
WESTWARD TO NEAR 140W.
REGARDING POSSIBLE TROPICAL WEATHER: THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK ISSUED BY NHC MENTIONS THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO FORM EARLY NEXT WEEK WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE EAST PACIFIC.
STRIPLING
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