825
AXPZ20 KNHC 292042
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 29 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 95W-96W, S OF 15N, DRIFTING
WESTWARD AROUND 5 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED FROM 03N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 89W AND
102W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N76W TO 12N102W TO
10N124W TO 07N130W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 04.5N132W AND CONTINUES
BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 03.5N TO 14N E OF 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 89W AND
102W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 108W AND 130W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF 138W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH 30N132W TO
JUST S OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS FROM PUNTA
EUGENIA SOUTHWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BAJA NORTE WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA. NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS THESE WATERS.
INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SECTION
REMAIN CYCLONIC AT MODERATE SPEEDS, WHILE GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE NW WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 2
TO 4 FT. ACROSS THE REMAINING OFFSHORE WATERS TO THE EAST, WINDS
ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT IN MIXED NW AND SW
SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF CHIAPAS AND EXTEND WELL OFFSHORE OF
TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, NE PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PRODUCING MODERATE
TO FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY DIMINISHING WINDS. NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH
THE BAJA WATERS TODAY WILL MERGE WITH SW SWELL SAT THROUGH SUN
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS EASTWARD. NEW N
SWELL WILL THEN ENTER THE BAJA NORTE WATERS ON SUN.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL OFFSHORE WATERS S OF 10N AND
EAST OF THE PAPAGAYO REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF PANAMA AND INTO THE
NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS STRONG CONVECTION IS LIKELY GENERATING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE
SW TO W WINDS PREVAIL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, ALONG ABOUT 09N,
WHILE WINDS ARE MOSTLY VARIABLE N OF 09N. RECENT SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND MOST OF THE NICARAGUA WATERS. SEAS ARE
MAINLY MODERATE IN SW SWELL, EXCEPT 7 TO 9 FT S OF 01.5N AND THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
NOCTURNAL PULSES OF MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION. LARGE SW SWELL CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY, AND WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN
BEFORE SUBSIDING. OTHERWISE, MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST WATERS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THROUGH SAT
BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SUN.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF 23N AND WEST OF 110W,
CENTERED ON STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE
TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 22N AND WEST OF ABOUT 120W PER
RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE
IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE IN A MIX OF TRADE WIND SWELL AND NW TO N
SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH E OF 120W, AS WELL AS S OF THE TROUGH. SEAS ACROSS THE
WATERS S OF THE TROUGH AND ITCZ ARE GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT IN
BUILDING S TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT NW TO N SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND
GENERATED WAVES PRODUCED BY THE FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ
LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS W OF 130W THROUGH SAT. E OF
120W, NW TO N SWELL WILL MERGE WITH SOUTHERLY SWELL OVER THE
CENTRAL WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT
FORECAST TO COVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE WATERS S THROUGH SW OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE EQUATOR E OF 120W,
AND WESTWARD TO NEAR 140W.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY NHC
MENTIONS THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
EARLY NEXT WEEK WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE
MOVING WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE EAST PACIFIC.
STRIPLING
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