227
AXPZ20 KNHC 300404
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 30 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 96W, S OF 14N, DRIFTING WESTWARD
AROUND 5 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE NOTED
FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 93W AND 105W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 11N108W TO
10N126W TO 06N132W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N132W AND CONTINUES
BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 01N TO 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 91W, AND FROM 03N TO 12N
BETWEEN 110W AND 131W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION TO JUST NW OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS ACROSS BOTH THE BAJA
NORTE AND SUR PENINSULA OFFSHORE WATERS. LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THESE WATERS.
INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE, EXCEPT
LOCALLY MODERATE NW WINDS AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE 1 TO 3 FT ALONG THE GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, NE PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PRODUCING
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE
WATERS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEADING TO SLIGHTLY DIMINISHING WINDS. NW SWELL MOVING
THROUGH THE BAJA WATERS TONIGHT WILL MERGE WITH SW SWELL SAT
THROUGH SUN ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS
EASTWARD. NEW N SWELL WILL THEN ENTER THE BAJA NORTE WATERS ON
SUN AND SUBSIDE EARLY TUE.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL OFFSHORE WATERS S OF 10N AND
EAST OF THE PAPAGAYO REGION TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS STRONG
CONVECTION IS LIKELY GENERATING STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR
LOCALLY MODERATE NE WINDS IN PAPAGAYO. SEAS ARE MAINLY MODERATE
IN SW SWELL, EXCEPT 7 TO 10 FT S OF 01.5N, INCLUDING THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
NOCTURNAL PULSES OF MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION. LARGE SW SWELL WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH SEAS ACROSS
THE WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN
BEFORE SUBSIDING. OTHERWISE, MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST WATERS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THROUGH SAT
BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SUN.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF 19N AND WEST OF 110W,
CENTERED ON STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE
TO E WINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 22N AND WEST OF ABOUT 118W.
SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 7 TO 10 FT RANGE IN A MIX OF
TRADE WIND SWELL AND NW TO N SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 110W, AS WELL AS S OF THE
TROUGH. SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF THE TROUGH AND ITCZ ARE
GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT IN BUILDING S TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT NW TO N SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND
GENERATED WAVES PRODUCED BY THE FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE
MONSOON/ITCZ LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS W OF 120W
THROUGH SAT. E OF 120W, NW TO N SWELL WILL MERGE WITH SOUTHERLY
SWELL OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND, WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT FORECAST TO COVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WATERS S THROUGH SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W, AND WESTWARD TO NEAR 140W.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY NHC
MENTIONS THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
EARLY NEXT WEEK WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
WHILE MOVING WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EAST PACIFIC.
RAMOS
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