000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301529
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAY 30 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 97W-98W, S OF 14N, DRIFTING
WESTWARD AROUND 5 KT. A BROAD 1009 MB LOW WAS DEPICTED BY RECENT
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA NEAR 09.5N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 11.5N BETWEEN
95W AND 105W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N77W TO 07N82W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 09.5N99W 1009 MB TO 11N106W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08.5N119W 1008
MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N127W 1008 MB 10N126W TO 06N135W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N136W AND CONTINUES BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01.5N TO 10.5N E OF
89W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 95W AND 130W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 09N W OF
130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION TO JUST SE OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG NW MEXICO IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA NORTE AND SUR
WATERS THIS MORNING, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY BEYOND 200
NM OFFSHORE. NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS OVER THESE WATERS, WITH HIGHEST SEAS TO 9 FT OFFSHORE OF
BAJA SUR. INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO
MODERATE FROM THE NW WITH SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT. ELSEWHERE TO THE
EAST, MAINLY NW TO N LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL, WITH MODERATE
SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SW SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND EXTEND WELL
OFFSHORE OF CHIAPAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, NE PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS WILL MERGE WITH SW SWELL ACROSS THE
SW MEXICAN OFFSHORES TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT TODAY THROUGH
SUN. NEW N SWELL WILL THEN ENTER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WATERS
ON SUN AND SUBSIDE EARLY TUE.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL OFFSHORE WATERS S OF 10.5N AND EAST OF THE
PAPAGAYO REGION TO COASTAL COLOMBIA. PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OFFSHORE THE SW COAST OF COLOMBIA AND LIKELY GENERATING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. RECENT SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS
PREVAILING S OF 10N AND THE MONSOON TROUGH, WHILE LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY MODERATE NE WINDS
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION. SEAS ARE MAINLY MODERATE IN BUILDING SW
SWELL, EXCEPT 7 TO 10 FT S OF 04N, HIGHEST NEAR THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
NOCTURNAL PULSES OF MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION. LARGE SW SWELL WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH SEAS ACROSS
THE WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN
BEFORE SUBSIDING. OTHERWISE, MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS DURING
THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 110W,
CENTERED ON STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE
TO E WINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 22N AND WEST OF ABOUT 116W.
SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 7 TO 10 FT RANGE IN A MIX OF
TRADE WIND SWELL AND NW TO N SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 110W, AS WELL AS S OF THE
TROUGH. SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF THE TROUGH AND ITCZ ARE
GENERALLY 7 TO 10 FT IN BUILDING S TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT NW TO N SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND
GENERATED WAVES PRODUCED BY THE FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE
MONSOON/ITCZ LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS W OF 120W
THROUGH SUN. E OF 120W, NW TO N SWELL WILL MERGE WITH SOUTHERLY
SWELL OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND, WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT FORECAST TO COVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WATERS S THROUGH SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W, AND WESTWARD TO NEAR 140W.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY NHC
MENTIONS THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
EARLY NEXT WEEK WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
WHILE MOVING WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EAST PACIFIC.
STRIPLING
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