326
AXPZ20 KNHC 302037
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAY 30 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 98W-99W, S OF 13N, MOVING WESTWARD
AT 5-10 KT. A BROAD 1009 MB LOW WAS DEPICTED BY EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA, AND IS NOW NEAR 09N99.5W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N
TO 11.5N BETWEEN 94W AND 106W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N78W TO 09.5N85W TO LOW
PRES NEAR 09N99.5W 1009 MB TO 11N108W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N129W
1008 MB TO 06N137W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N138W AND CONTINUES
BEYOND 06.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO
11.5N E OF 91W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03.5N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 107W AND
140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION TO JUST S OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG NW MEXICO IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
FRESH NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
OVER THESE WATERS, WITH HIGHEST SEAS TO 9 FT ALONG ABOUT 21N TO
THE NORTH OF THE REVILLAGIGEDOS. INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE NW WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL SECTION, WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE NORTH PORTIONS. ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST, MAINLY LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL, WITH MODERATE SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SW SWELL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN RECENT HOURS ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, NE PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH SUN, THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE. NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS WILL MERGE WITH SW SWELL ACROSS THE SW
MEXICAN OFFSHORES THIS EVENING THROUGH SUN EVENING TO PRODUCE
SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT. NEW N SWELL WILL THEN ENTER THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE WATERS SUN MORNING AND SUBSIDE MON EVENING
THROUGH TUE.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE
WATERS S OF 10.5N AND E OF THE PAPAGAYO REGION TO COLOMBIA HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY IN RECENT HOURS. RECENT SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED LIGHT TO GENTLE S TO SW WINDS
PREVAILING S OF 10N AND THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TO THE N OF 10N, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY MODERATE NE
TO E WINDS DOWNSTREAM OF THE PAPAGAYO REGION. SEAS ARE MAINLY
MODERATE IN BUILDING SW SWELL, EXCEPT 7 TO 10 FT S OF 05N,
HIGHEST JUST SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
NOCTURNAL PULSES OF MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION. LARGE SW SWELL WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS THIS EVENING THROUGH SUN EVENING, AND WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND
COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN BEFORE SUBSIDING. OTHERWISE, MODERATE SEAS
IN SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH TUE
BEFORE NEW SW SWELL REACHES THE GALAPAGOS TUE NIGHT. EXPECT
PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WATERS SUN NIGHT
THROUGH TUE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF 18N AND WEST OF 110W,
CENTERED ON STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE
TO E WINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 22N AND WEST OF ABOUT 115W.
RECENT SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA SHOWED SEAS OVER THESE WATERS
IN THE 7 TO 11 FT RANGE IN A MIX OF TRADE WIND SWELL AND NW TO N
SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH E OF 110W, AS WELL AS S OF THE TROUGH. SEAS ACROSS THE
WATERS S OF THE TROUGH AND ITCZ ARE GENERALLY 7 TO 10 FT IN
BUILDING S TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS THROUGH SUN
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DRIFT N AND WINDS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE. THE CURRENT NW TO N SWELL WILL
COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES PRODUCED BY THE FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF
THE MONSOON/ITCZ LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS W OF 120W
THROUGH EARLY MON. E OF 120W, NW TO N SWELL WILL MERGE WITH
SOUTHERLY SWELL OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND, WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT FORECAST TO COVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WATERS S THROUGH SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO
THE EQUATOR E OF 120W, AND WESTWARD TO NEAR 140W.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY NHC
INDICATES THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
EARLY NEXT WEEK WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, AND WEST OF 120W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE MOVING WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
EAST PACIFIC.
STRIPLING
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page