764
AXPZ20 KNHC 310406
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAY 31 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 101W, S OF 13N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
5-10 KT. THE WAVE HAS DETACHED FROM THE LOW IT WAS ASSOCIATED
FORMERLY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO
12N BETWEEN 103W AND 112W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N114W TO LOW
PRES NEAR 09N130W 1008 MB TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 11.5N E OF 91W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 127W AND 140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
03N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION TO JUST NW OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
OFFSHORE WATERS. NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE WATERS N OF CABO SAN LAZARO WHILE SW SWELL
IS SUPPORTING 7 TO 9 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM CABO
SAN LAZARO TO CABO SAN LUCAS. INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
S OF 28N, WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH FROM THE NW WITH SEAS TO 3
FT N OF 25N AND 3 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS
TO 7 FT IN SW SWELL, INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, NE PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THU, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT, EXCEPT DIMINISHING BRIEFLY TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE SPEEDS SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE. NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS WILL BRIEFLY MERGE WITH SW
SWELL ACROSS THE SW MEXICAN OFFSHORES TONIGHT TO PRODUCE SEAS TO
10 FT. NEW N SWELL WILL THEN ENTER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
WATERS SUN MORNING AND SUBSIDE MON NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW LIGHT TO GENTLE S TO SW
WINDS PREVAILING S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TO THE NORTH OF IT. SEAS ARE MAINLY MODERATE IN BUILDING
SW SWELL, EXCEPT 7 TO 10 FT BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND
ECUADOR ADJACENT WATERS W OF 83W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
NOCTURNAL PULSES OF MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION. LARGE SW SWELL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND COLOMBIA BEFORE SUBSIDING SUN NIGHT.
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ELSEWHERE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS. NEW SW SWELL WILL REACH THE GALAPAGOS TUE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF 18N AND WEST OF 115W,
CENTERED ON STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO
E WINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 30N AND WEST OF ABOUT 120W. RECENT
SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA SHOWED SEAS OVER THESE WATERS IN THE 7
TO 11 FT RANGE IN A MIX OF TRADE WIND SWELL AND NW TO N SWELL.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W
OF 110W. SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF THE TROUGH ARE GENERALLY 7
TO 10 FT IN BUILDING S TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS THROUGH SUN
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DRIFT N AND WINDS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE. THE CURRENT NW TO N SWELL WILL
COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES PRODUCED BY THE FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF
THE MONSOON/ITCZ LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS W OF 120W
THROUGH EARLY MON. E OF 120W, NW TO N SWELL WILL MERGE WITH
SOUTHERLY SWELL OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND, WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT FORECAST TO COVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WATERS S THROUGH SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO
THE EQUATOR E OF 120W, AND WESTWARD TO NEAR 140W.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY NHC
INDICATES THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WHILE MOVING WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
KT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EAST PACIFIC.
RAMOS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page