483
AXPZ20 KNHC 310939
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAY 31 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0920 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 105W, FROM 02N TO 14N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
04N TO 11N BETWEEN 98W AND 114W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 11N107W TO LOW
PRES NEAR 08N123W 1009 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N133W TO 06N140W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE,
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED ALSO
WITH THE 1009 MB LOW IS FROM 02N TO 11N BETWEEN 114W AND 125W,
AND FROM 01N TO 13N BETWEEN 127W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION TO JUST NW OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
OFFSHORE WATERS. NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE SEAS TO
7 FT OVER THE WATERS N OF CABO SAN LAZARO WHILE MERGING SW AND NW
SWELL IS SUPPORTING 7 TO 9 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO CABO SAN LUCAS. INSIDE THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND S OF 28N, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE
NW WITH SEAS TO 3 FT N OF 25N AND 3 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE ENTRANCE
OF THE GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT IN SW SWELL, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, NE PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THU, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT, EXCEPT DIMINISHING BRIEFLY TO GENTLE
TO MODERATE SPEEDS SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE. NW SWELL MOVING
THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS WILL MERGE WITH SW
SWELL ACROSS THE JALISCO AND REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS OFFSHORE
WATERS TODAY TO PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MON. NEW N SWELL WILL ENTER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING MON NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICA
OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT IN SW SWELL.
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
AND ECUADOR WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE SSE AND SEAS
ARE 7 TO 9 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICA
OFFSHORES THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR NOCTURNAL PULSES OF
MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE
SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THESE FORECAST WATERS
THROUGH THU NIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE WINDS BETWEEN THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND ECUADOR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THESE
WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENT SW SWELL BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON. HOWEVER,
NEW LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN
GALAPAGOS ADJACENT WATERS TUE NIGHT AND SUBSIDE THU NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF 17N AND WEST OF 115W,
CENTERED ON STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TO NEAR 30N AND WEST OF ABOUT 120W.
SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 7 TO 10 FT RANGE IN A MIX OF
TRADE WIND SWELL AND NW TO N SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 90W. SEAS ACROSS THE
WATERS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE GENERALLY 7 TO 10 FT IN
BUILDING S TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS THROUGH
TODAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DRIFT N AND WINDS WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE. THE CURRENT NW TO N SWELL
WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES PRODUCED BY THE FRESH TRADE WINDS N
OF THE MONSOON/ITCZ LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS W OF
120W THROUGH EARLY MON. E OF 120W, NW TO N SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
MERGE WITH SOUTHERLY SWELL OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY
MON, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT FORECAST TO COVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE WATERS S THROUGH SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO THE EQUATOR E OF 120W, AND WESTWARD TO NEAR 140W.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY NHC
INDICATES THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WHILE MOVING WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
KT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EAST PACIFIC.
RAMOS
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