238
AXPZ20 KNHC 311528
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAY 31 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 106W, FROM 02N TO 14N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 98W AND 114W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO 11N105W TO LOW
PRES NEAR 08N123W 1009 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N133W 1009 MB TO
06N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE, SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
ALSO WITH LOW PRESSURES ARE FROM 02N TO 11N BETWEEN 114W AND
125W AND FROM 01N TO 13N BETWEEN 127W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION TO JUST NW OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
MODERATE NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE
WATERS. NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE SEAS TO 8 FT OVER
THE WATERS N OF CABO SAN LAZARO WHILE MERGING SW AND NW SWELL IS
SUPPORTING 7 TO 9 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM CABO
SAN LAZARO TO CABO SAN LUCAS. INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WINDS ARE GENTLE NW WITH SEAS SLIGHT SEAS, EXCEPT 3 TO 6 FT
ACROSS THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS IN SW SWELL, INCLUDING THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, NE PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE
WATERS. NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE
WATERS WILL MERGE WITH SW SWELL ACROSS THE JALISCO AND
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS OFFSHORE WATERS TO PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS
FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON. N SWELL WILL IMPACT THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WATERS THROUGH MON NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT IN SW
SWELL. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS AND ECUADOR WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE SSE AND
SEAS ARE 7 TO 9 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICA
OFFSHORES THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR NOCTURNAL PULSES OF
MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE
SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THESE FORECAST WATERS
THROUGH THU NIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE WINDS BETWEEN THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND ECUADOR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THESE
WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SW SWELL BRINGING ROUGH SEAS
TO 9 FT WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, NEW LONG PERIOD SW SWELL
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN GALAPAGOS ADJACENT WATERS TUE
NIGHT AND SUBSIDE THU NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF 17N, CENTERED ON STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN HAWAII AND CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS N OF
THE MONSOON TO NEAR 30N AND WEST OF ABOUT 120W. SEAS OVER THESE
WATERS ARE IN THE 7 TO 10 FT RANGE IN A MIX OF TRADE WIND SWELL
AND NW TO N SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 90W. SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH ARE GENERALLY 7 TO 10 FT IN S TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT N AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE. THE CURRENT NW TO N SWELL
WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES PRODUCED BY THE FRESH TRADE WINDS N
OF THE MONSOON/ITCZ LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS W OF
120W THROUGH EARLY MON. E OF 120W, NW TO N SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
MERGE WITH SOUTHERLY SWELL OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY
MON, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT FORECAST TO COVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE WATERS S THROUGH SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO THE EQUATOR E OF 120W, AND WESTWARD TO NEAR 140W.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY NHC
INDICATES THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WHILE MOVING WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
KT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EAST PACIFIC.
KONARIK
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