235
AXPZ20 KNHC 312005
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAY 31 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 107W, FROM 02N TO 14N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 98W AND 114W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO 11N105W TO A 1009
MB LOW PRES NEAR 08N123W TO ANOTHER 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR
08N133W TO 06N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED ALSO
WITH LOW PRESSURES ARE FROM 02N TO 11N BETWEEN 114W AND 125W AND
FROM 01N TO 13N BETWEEN 127W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION TO JUST NW OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
OFFSHORE WATERS. NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SEAS TO 8 FT OVER
THE WATERS N OF CABO SAN LAZARO WHILE MERGING SW AND NW SWELL IS
SUPPORTING 7 TO 9 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM CABO
SAN LAZARO TO CABO SAN LUCAS. INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WINDS
ARE GENTLE NW WITH SEAS SLIGHT SEAS, EXCEPT 3 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE
ENTRANCE OF THE GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
ALONG WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS IN SW SWELL, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED N OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NW WINDS ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. ROUGH SEAS FOR
THESE WATERS WILL SUBSIDE MON AS NW SWELL DECAYS. ELSEWHERE,
MAINLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT IN SW
SWELL. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS AND ECUADOR WINDS ARE GENTLE FROM THE SSE AND SEAS ARE 6
TO 8 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR NOCTURNAL PULSES OF
MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE
SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL. GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE WINDS
BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND ECUADOR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS FORECAST TO ENTER
THE SOUTHERN GALAPAGOS ADJACENT WATERS TUE NIGHT AND SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WATERS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
WINDS. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 7 TO 10 FT RANGE IN A
MIX OF TRADE WIND WAVES AND NW TO N SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE GENERALLY 7 TO 10 FT IN S TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, BROAD LOW PRESSURE OF 1009 MB, DEPICTED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE, IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHILE MOVING WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE EAST PACIFIC.
OTHERWISE, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT N, CAUSING WINDS TO
WEAKEN EARLY THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, A CONTINUATION OF A MIXTURE OF
SOUTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY LONG-PERIOD SWELL AND TRADEWIND
WAVES WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KONARIK
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