580
AXPZ20 KNHC 010321
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUN 01 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL IS ALONG 82W N OF 04N. IT IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY
OCCURRING WITH THIS WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 107W FROM 01N TO 14N MOVING
WESTWARD NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM
04N TO 14N BETWEEN 98W AND 114W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO 11N98W TO 11N114W
TO 09N120W TO 09N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
126W-132W, ALSO WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
118W-120W AND BETWEEN 130W-135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 95W-99W AND FROM 04N
TO 09N BETWEEN 109W-115W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION TO JUST NW OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
OFFSHORE WATERS. NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SEAS TO 8 FT OVER
THE WATERS N OF CABO SAN LAZARO WHILE MERGING SW AND NW SWELL IS
SUPPORTING 7 TO 9 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM CABO
SAN LAZARO TO CABO SAN LUCAS. INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION WHILE LIGHT
TO GENTLE NW WINDS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION AND GENTLE S TO
SW WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION. SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS
OVER THE GULF, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN SE TO S
SWELL OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION. SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL
ARE AT THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS IN SW SWELL, INCLUDING THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED N OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW
WINDS ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. ROUGH SEAS FOR
THESE WATERS WILL SUBSIDE MON AS NW SWELL DECAYS. ELSEWHERE,
MAINLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT IN SW
SWELL. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS AND ECUADOR WINDS ARE GENTLE, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN
DIRECTION, AND SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL AS
NOTED IN THE MOST RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES OVER
THESE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR NOCTURNAL PULSES
OF MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION.
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL. GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO
SE WINDS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND ECUADOR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE SOUTHERN GALAPAGOS ADJACENT WATERS TUE NIGHT AND
SUBSIDE THU NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WATERS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH GENERALLY SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH
NE TO E WINDS. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 7 TO 10 FT
RANGE IN A MIX OF TRADE WIND WAVES AND NW TO N SWELL. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS OVER THE WATERS
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE GENERALLY 7 TO 9 FT IN S TO SW SWELL
AS INDICATED IN RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES.
FOR THE FORECAST, BROAD LOW PRESSURE, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK WHILE MOVING WESTWARD OR WEST- NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
OTHERWISE, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, A
CONTINUATION OF A MIXTURE OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY LONG-
PERIOD SWELL COMBINED WITH TRADE WIND WAVES WILL LEAD TO
OCCASIONAL ROUGH SEAS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AGUIRRE
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