946
AXPZ20 KNHC 010956
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUN 1 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL TO TJE SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ROUGHLY FROM
04N TO 11N BETWEEN 120W AND 134W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHILE MOVING WESTWARD
OR WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE EAST PACIFIC. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL IS ALONG 84W N OF 03N. IT IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY
OCCURRING WITH THIS WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 108W FROM 01N TO 14N MOVING
WESTWARD NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 05N TO 08N.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N85W TO 11N98W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 10.5N117W
1008 MB TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 08N129W 1009 MB AND TO BEYOND
06N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 129W-132W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH
BETWEEN 126W-129W, AND FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 120W-124W AND
FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 111W-114W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 110W-115W, ALSO
WITHIN 180 NM OF N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 125W-135W, WITHIN
120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 95W-99W, AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 109W-114W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION TO JUST NW OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
OFFSHORE WATERS. NW SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS TO 9 FT OVER THE
WATERS N OF CABO SAN LAZARO WHILE MERGING SW AND NW SWELL IS
CAUSING SIMILAR SEAS SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM CABO
SAN LAZARO TO CABO SAN LUCAS. INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION WHILE LIGHT
TO GENTLE NW WINDS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION AND GENTLE SE
TO S WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION. SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS
OVER THE GULF, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN S TO SW
SWELL OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION. SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL
ARE AT THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS REMAIN
ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS PRIMARILY IN LONG- PERIOD S
TO SW SWELL, INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED N OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW
WINDS ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. NW SWELL OVER
THESE WATERS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH WED NIGHT AS YET ANOTHER SET OF
NW SWELL APPROACHES THE WATERS OFF EXTREME NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THIS SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH FRI NIGHT BRINGING ROUGH SEAS
OVER THOSE SAME WATERS. ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY TRANQUIL MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN LONG-PERIOD S TO SW SWELL. GENTLE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN LONG-
PERIOD SW SWELL AS SEEN IN OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA
PASSES ARE OVER THE WATERS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE
WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND ECUADOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PROVIDE FOR
GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
NOCTURNAL PULSES OF MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL. GENTLE
TO MODERATE S TO SE WINDS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND
ECUADOR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. LONG-PERIOD SW
SWELL IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN GALAPAGOS ADJACENT WATERS
TUE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THU AFTERNOON.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION HALF OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WATERS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH GENERALLY SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH
NE TO E TRADE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS OVER THESE
WATERS ARE IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE IN A MIX OF TRADE WIND WAVES
AND NW TO N SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE GENERALLY 7 TO 9 FT IN S TO
SW SWELL AS INDICATED IN OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA
PASSES.
ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ALLOWING
FOR WINDS TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, A CONTINUATION OF A
MIXTURE OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY LONG-PERIOD SWELL
COMBINED WITH TRADE WIND WAVES WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL ROUGH SEAS
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AGUIRRE
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