695
AXPZ20 KNHC 012000
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 1 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OF 1008 MB, EP90, CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH NEAR 09N126W, WELL SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS DISORGANIZED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FROM DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK
WHILE MOVING WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EAST PACIFIC. THIS LOW HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 82W, N
OF 05N, MOVING W AT AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 05N AND E OF 87W IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS WAVE, IMPACTING WATERS NEAR PANAMA.
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 108W FROM 05N TO 15N, MOVING W
AT AROUND 5 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 103W AND 110W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO 10N110W TO 1008
MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 09N126W TO 06N140W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION
NEAR THE TROUGH ALREADY DEPICTED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 130W AND 133W AND
FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 111W AND 114W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION TO JUST NW OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
MODERATE NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE
WATERS. NW SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS TO 9 FT OVER THE WATERS N OF
CABO SAN LAZARO. INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL, EXCEPT FOR 3 TO 6 FT SEAS IN SW SWELL
NEAR THE ENTRANCE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS DOMINATE ALONG WITH 5 TO 7 FT SEAS
PRIMARILY IN LONG- PERIOD S TO SW SWELL, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH FRI NIGHT, BRINGING ROUGH
SEAS. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OFFSHORE
SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND, AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES W TO WNW AT 5 TO 10 KT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN LONG-PERIOD S TO SW SWELL. THE
EXCEPTION IS MODERATE GAP WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION. GENTLE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN LONG-
PERIOD SW SWELL ARE OVER THE WATERS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER
THE WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND ECUADOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PROVIDE FOR
GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
NOCTURNAL PULSES OF MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL. LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN GALAPAGOS
ADJACENT WATERS TUE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THU AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OFFSHORE
CENTRAL AMERICA LATE THIS WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND, AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES W TO WNW AT 5 TO 10 KT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON LOW
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN BASIN ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THIS WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WATERS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NE TO E TRADE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS OVER THESE
WATERS ARE IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE IN A MIX OF TRADE WIND WAVES
AND NW TO N SWELL. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE GENERALLY 7 TO 9 FT
IN S TO SW SWELL.
ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO WEAKEN.
HOWEVER, A CONTINUATION OF A MIXTURE OF SOUTHERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY LONG-PERIOD SWELL COMBINED WITH TRADE WIND WAVES
WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL ROUGH SEAS THROUGH LATE WEEK.
KONARIK
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