273
WTPZ41 KNHC 030231
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012026
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 02 2026
THE SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE EARLIER TODAY. A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION, BUT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ARE LIMITED AT THIS
TIME. CIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS SHOW FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
HELD AT 25 KT BASED ON A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF T1.5 FROM TAFB, AN
ADT ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS, AND OSCAT DATA.
CENTER FIXES INDICATE A SLOW, BUT GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD, MOTION AT
AROUND 310/3 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CAUSE A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT AT A
SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WESTWARD
TO SOUTHWESTWARD TURN IS FORECAST IN 3-5 DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A
SLIGHT BUILDING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE, HCCA.
GIVEN THE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND WARM SSTS, SOME
STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED. HOWEVER, SINCE THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED
IN AN ELONGATED CONVERGENCE ZONE, THIS COULD IMPEDE SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MODEST STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH HCCA
AND THE HAFS REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
LEAD TO WEAKENING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 9.7N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 10.2N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 11.1N 128.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 12.0N 129.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 12.9N 131.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 13.6N 132.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 13.9N 133.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 13.8N 134.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 13.3N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
FORECASTER PASCH
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