998
WTPZ41 KNHC 030837
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012026
200 AM PDT WED JUN 03 2026
A COMBINATION OF GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS A SMALL, BUT WELL-DEFINED,
CIRCULATION WITH A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION JUST TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE AND HAVE INCREASED SOME SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY. BASED ON THIS INCREASE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED
TO 30 KT.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE
INITIAL MOTION NOW 310/5 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CAUSE A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AFTER THAT, A WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED
AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CYCLONE. THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY IS TO SHOW A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK AFTER 36 H. BASED ON
THIS, THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
THROUGH 36 H AND THEN LIES SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SOME SOUTHEASTERLY
SHEAR, IT IS EMBEDDED IN A MOIST AIR MASS AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. INDEED, DURING THE NEXT 48 H THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE ENOUGH THAT THE SHIPS MODEL RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICES
ARE SHOWING A 25-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RI. HOWEVER, THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE IS NOT AS BULLISH ON STRENGTHENING. THE FORECAST PEAK
INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 55 KT, WHICH LIES BETWEEN THE GFS- AND
ECMWF-BASED SHIPS MODELS ON ONE SIDE AND THE LESS INTENSE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ON THE OTHER. AFTER PEAK INTENSITY, A COMBINATION OF
INCREASING SHEAR, A DRIER AIR MASS, AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 10.2N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 10.8N 128.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 11.6N 129.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 12.6N 130.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 13.3N 132.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 13.6N 133.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 13.7N 133.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 13.4N 134.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 12.8N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
FORECASTER BEVEN
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