955
WTPZ41 KNHC 031454
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012026
800 AM PDT WED JUN 03 2026
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS. OBJECTIVE
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE AROUND 35
KT. USING THESE ESTIMATES AND THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS, THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WITH THE
INITIAL INTENSITY SET TO 35 KT.
AMANDA IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 305/7 KT. THE SYSTEM IS FLANKED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST, SUPPORTING A
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH FRIDAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT HAS BEEN
NUDGED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS BEYOND DAY 3, LYING
BETWEEN THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.
THE STORM HAS SHOWN INCREASING ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS MORNING,
AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SUFFICIENTLY SATURATED LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS STEADY STRENGTHENING OVER
THE NEXT 36 H OR SO. IT IS NOTED THAT GFS AND EC SHIPS RI MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 H. THE OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST MAINTAINS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KT, WHICH LIES NEAR THE
HIGHER END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTER 36-48 H, AMANDA WILL MOVE
INTO A LESS-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND A DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIRMASS, SUPPORTING STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW HAS THE
SYSTEM BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AT DAY 5, ALTHOUGH SOME
MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 10.6N 128.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 11.2N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 12.1N 130.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 12.9N 131.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 13.5N 132.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 13.6N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 13.4N 134.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 12.9N 134.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 12.2N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER KELLY/ADAMS
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