561
WTPZ41 KNHC 032032
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012026
200 PM PDT WED JUN 03 2026
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE DEPICTED INCREASING
ORGANIZATION OF AMANDA TODAY WITH CURVED BANDING NOTED. A SAR RCM-2
PASS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWED A SLIGHTLY LARGER AND MORE
UNIFORM WIND FIELD AROUND THE CENTER OF AMANDA, AND THE CENTER
POSITION WAS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION OF THE STORM HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES RANGE FROM 30-40 KT, SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 35 KT.
AMANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
300/8 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SUPPORT A
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH A SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS
AND BUILDS WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL
POSITION ADJUSTMENT AND MODEL TRENDS, AND IS CLOSE TO THE GOOGLE
DEEPMIND FORECAST TRACK.
THE STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A RATHER HUMID LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL AIR MASS, AND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS STEADY
STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE NEXT 36 H. GFS AND EC SHIPS RI PROBABILITY
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE,
SHOWING A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 H. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY OF
50 KT, WHICH LIES NEAR THE HIGHER END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AMANDA
WILL ENCOUNTER A DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASING SHEAR
BEYOND 36 H, AND MAY STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND.
SLOW TO STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT, AND AMANDA IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AT DAY 5, THOUGH SOME
MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 10.8N 128.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 11.5N 129.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 12.4N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 13.0N 132.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 13.3N 133.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 13.0N 134.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 12.6N 134.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 12.0N 135.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 11.4N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER KELLY/ADAMS
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