246
WTPZ41 KNHC 040232
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012026
800 PM PDT WED JUN 03 2026
AMANDA HAS NOT APPARENTLY STRENGTHENED SINCE EARLIER TODAY. THERE
ARE A COUPLE OF POORLY-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, AND A FEW CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN
REDEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER, LIKELY A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT WHICH IS ROUGHLY IN
AGREEMENT WITH OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS. HOPEFULLY,
WE WILL GET A SCATTEROMETER PASS OVER THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT TO HELP
IN ASSESSING THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE.
AN AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE AND RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
THE STORM CENTER IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED
TRACK. ADJUSTING THE WORKING BEST TRACK OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/8 KT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF AMANDA SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
LATER, A NARROW RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A LEFTWARD TURN AND A
SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IN AROUND 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE PERIOD, AND VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK LATER ON.
THIS IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND CORRECTED
CONSENSUS FORECAST SOLUTIONS.
AMANDA SHOULD REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH WARM SSTS AND MODERATE
EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO
ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN A FEW
DAYS WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE IN THE 48
HOUR TIME FRAME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH WEAKENING OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN THE SYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. THIS NHC FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH SIDE
OF THE INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 11.4N 129.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 12.2N 130.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 13.0N 131.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 13.4N 132.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 13.5N 133.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 13.1N 134.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 12.8N 134.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 12.2N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0000Z 11.7N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER PASCH
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