690
WTPZ41 KNHC 040834
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012026
200 AM PDT THU JUN 04 2026
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF
AMANDA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A RECENT ASCAT-B OVERPASS SHOWED
A FEW 35-KT WIND VECTORS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER, WITH 30-35
KT VECTORS ELSEWHERE NEAR THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT, WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY OTHER SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF AMANDA HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY, WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 305/7.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD CAUSE A GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 H OR SO. THEN, A NARROW
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF AMANDA,
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS TO TURN WESTWARD AND
SOUTHWESTWARD. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE
GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS, IS
A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48 H AND SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER THAT.
AMANDA IS BEING AFFECTED BY ABOUT 15 KT OF SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS MOIST
SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 H, AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KT. AFTER
THAT TIME, THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY DRY
AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS, AND IT IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOVE INTO AN AREA
OF UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
AS FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
GUIDANCE, AND IT SHOWS THE CYCLONE DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE AREA BY 96 H. OVERALL, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 12.2N 129.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 12.8N 130.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 13.4N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 13.6N 133.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 13.4N 133.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 13.1N 134.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 12.7N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 12.2N 135.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0600Z 11.6N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER BEVEN
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