694
WTPZ41 KNHC 041440
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012026
800 AM PDT THU JUN 04 2026
AN AMSR-2 PASS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER, BUT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS KEPT CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED
IN THE NORTH AND WEST QUADRANTS OF AMANDA. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES DEPICT AN INTENSITY AROUND 35 KT, SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
AMANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 8 KT. AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL STORM WILL SUPPORT A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST THEN SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST OVER THIS WEEKEND AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF AMANDA. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH, AND FALLS BETWEEN THE GOOGLE
DEEPMIND AND VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
HAVE LED TO PULSING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER
OF AMANDA. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
12-24 H AS THE STORM REMAINS IN A SEMI-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER, AFTER 24 H, THE STORM WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, LEADING
TO STEADY WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR AMANDA TO
WEAKEN TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY 72 H, BUT IT MAY STRUGGLE
TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTION EVEN BEFORE THAT TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 12.5N 130.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 13.0N 131.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 13.3N 132.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 13.3N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 13.0N 134.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 12.6N 134.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 12.2N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1200Z 11.7N 136.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1200Z 11.3N 137.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER REINHART/ADAMS
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