069
WTPZ41 KNHC 042033
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012026
200 PM PDT THU JUN 04 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED CENTER OF AMANDA AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERED SOUTHEASTERLY
SHEAR. CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAD FALTERED, HOWEVER,
A NEW BURST OF COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS RECENTLY EMERGED NEAR THE CENTER
OF THE STORM. THIS RENEWED CONVECTION COMBINED WITH A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING PEAK WINDS OF 35-39 KT HAS INDICATED A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
AMANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 8 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST IS
FORECAST LATER ON FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD, AND FALLS BETWEEN THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND VARIOUS
CONSENSUS AIDS.
THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE STORM MAINTAINS MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE,
HOWEVER, DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND ITS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PERIPHERY. AFTER 24 H, AMANDA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR, LEADING TO STEADY WEAKENING THIS WEEKEND. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR AMANDA TO WEAKEN TO A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW LATER THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM MAY LOSE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 12.7N 131.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 13.0N 132.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 13.1N 133.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 12.9N 133.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 12.6N 134.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 12.2N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 11.9N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1800Z 11.4N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1800Z 11.0N 137.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER REINHART/ADAMS
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