710
WTPZ41 KNHC 050233
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012026
800 PM PDT THU JUN 04 2026
SINCE THE PRIOR ADVISORY, A MORE SIGNIFICANT BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION FORMED CLOSE TO AMANDA’S CENTER WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES EARLIER REACHING AS LOW AS -80C. UNDERNEATH THE CIRRUS,
A 2225 UTC AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED SOME INNER CORE ORGANIZATION
ON THE 37-GHZ CHANNEL, THOUGH THE 89-GHZ CHANNEL SHOWED LESS
ORGANIZATION WITH THE CENTER TILTED WITH HEIGHT DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 33-44 KT AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE TROPICAL STORM HAS MAINTAINED A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION,
ESTIMATED AT 290/9 KT. AMANDA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST AND
THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST WHILE SLOWING DOWN AS A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN TO ITS NORTHWEST. BY THIS WEEKEND, AMANDA SHOULD BECOME
MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW, BUT A PROMINENT LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
NORTH OF HAWAII SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS SOUTH OF WEST MOTION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE THIS
EVENING SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTH IN THE SHORT TERM, AND THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS FORECAST LIES
ROUGHLY IN BETWEEN THE HCCA AND GDMI TRACK AIDS.
WHILE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SOME OVER AMANDA THIS EVENING, IT
STILL DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF ORGANIZATION ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WHILE THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO DECREASE MORE
APPRECIABLY AFTER THAT TIME. IN RESPONSE, MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINNING AFTER 24 HOURS, THOUGH AMANDA MIGHT
CONTINUE TO SPUTTER ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION
AS IT REMAINS OVER 27-28 C SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SHEAR INCREASES
FURTHER BEYOND 60 H, AND THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST STILL
SHOWS AMANDA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH THE CIRCULATION MAY SURVIVE A FEW ADDITIONAL DAYS BEFORE
OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 13.3N 132.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 13.5N 132.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 13.4N 133.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 13.0N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 12.6N 134.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 12.1N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 11.7N 136.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0000Z 11.3N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0000Z 11.0N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER PAPIN
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