014
WTPZ41 KNHC 050833
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012026
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 05 2026
AMANDA'S CENTER BECAME EMBEDDED BENEATH A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION
A FEW HOURS AGO, ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IMPINGING ON THE CIRCULATION UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. A PAIR OF ASCAT PASSES BETWEEN 0500 AND 0600
UTC SHOWED PEAK WINDS OF 39-42 KT, AND AMANDA'S INITIAL INTENSITY
THEREFORE REMAINS 40 KT. THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTORS OF AMANDA'S
FUTURE INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TO BE A GRADUALLY DRIER AIR MASS AND A
MORE CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. AS A
RESULT, THE BURSTS OF CONVECTION ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SMALLER AND
SMALLER, WITH AMANDA GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 60 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
TREND SHOWN BY THE HCCA AND GDMI INTENSITY AIDS.
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION (290/8 KT) CONTINUES, BUT SPRAWLING
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO AMANDA'S NORTHWEST SHOULD CAUSE
THE STORM TO TURN WESTWARD LATER TODAY AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD BY
SATURDAY. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SOUTHWARD AFTER 36 HOURS, TRENDING TOWARD THE HCCA AND GDMI
GUIDANCE, WHICH LIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. THE
REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST BY DAYS 3-5
WHILE BEING STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 13.4N 132.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 13.4N 133.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 13.2N 134.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 12.8N 134.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 12.2N 135.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 11.7N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0600Z 11.3N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0600Z 11.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0600Z 10.9N 139.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER BERG
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