532
WTPZ41 KNHC 051446
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012026
500 AM HST FRI JUN 05 2026
AN AMSR2 SATELLITE PASS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWED A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER, BUT PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO
IMPACT AMANDA AS THE CENTER REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 35-44 KT AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA DEPICTED PEAK WINDS OF
38-42 KT, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 40 KT.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AMANDA HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. DIURNAL PULSES OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AMANDA TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS. HOWEVER, THE STORM WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER MID-LEVEL
AIR AND INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NEXT 36-48 H.
THEREFORE, SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, AND AMANDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY LATE SUNDAY.
THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT AROUND 9 KT. A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF AMANDA WILL SUPPORT A WESTWARD MOTION
TODAY, BEFORE THE STORM TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE
FIRST DAY OR SO, AND LIES BETWEEN THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND VARIOUS
CONSENSUS AIDS. THE REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE
WEST BY DAYS 3-5 WHILE BEING STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 13.3N 133.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 13.1N 134.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 12.8N 134.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 12.3N 135.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 11.8N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 11.4N 136.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 08/1200Z 11.1N 137.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1200Z 10.8N 139.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/1200Z 10.6N 140.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER ADAMS/BROWN
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