051
WTPZ41 KNHC 052036
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012026
1100 AM HST FRI JUN 05 2026
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLETELY EXPOSED CENTER
WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION PRESENT TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTER. A SAR SATELLITE PASS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWED AN
OBLONG CIRCULATION AND A DEGRADED STRUCTURE ON THE EAST SIDE
OF AMANDA. DUE TO THESE FACTORS AND OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 32-36 KT, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT.
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE IMPACTING
AMANDA. SMALL PULSES OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AMANDA TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS. HOWEVER, INCREASINGLY HOSTILE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD CAUSE
AMANDA TO DEGENERATE TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY LATE
SUNDAY.
AMANDA IS BEING STEERED BY A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE
STORM, AND IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 4 KT. A TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND LIES BETWEEN THE GOOGLE
DEEPMIND AND VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE REMNANT
LOW OF AMANDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST, GUIDED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 13.1N 134.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 12.9N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 12.5N 134.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 12.1N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 11.6N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 11.3N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1800Z 11.0N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1800Z 10.7N 139.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/1800Z 10.5N 140.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER ADAMS/BROWN
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