564
WTPZ41 KNHC 060235
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012026
500 PM HST FRI JUN 05 2026
AMANDA HAS PRODUCED A MODEST INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS, WITH CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES COOLING TO AROUND -80C.
HOWEVER, THIS RENEWED BURST OF CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED PRIMARILY
TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
LOCATED NEAR OR BENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB, ALONG WITH OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS, RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 KT. GIVEN THE
RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND THESE ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.
AMANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST, OR 230/4 KT. A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STEER AMANDA GENERALLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW, IT SHOULD
BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW, RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED SOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES
NEAR THE CONSENSUS AIDS.
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR, INCREASING DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND
INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIMITING
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. WHILE SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGESTS OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THESE EPISODES ARE UNLIKELY
TO RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION. AS AMANDA GRADUALLY
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW, STEADY
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND CONTINUES TO SHOW AMANDA DEGENERATING INTO A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 12.9N 134.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 12.7N 134.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 12.2N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 11.8N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 11.4N 136.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/1200Z 11.0N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0000Z 10.7N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0000Z 10.4N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0000Z 10.1N 141.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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