327
WTPZ41 KNHC 060836
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012026
1100 PM HST FRI JUN 05 2026
AMANDA'S OVERALL STRUCTURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER AND WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO THE PERSISTENT MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
SHEAR. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 KT. GIVEN THE CURRENT
SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.
AMANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST, OR 230/4 KT. A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM, RESULTING IN CONTINUED SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS AMANDA GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW, IT SHOULD BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WIND FLOW. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED, AND THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR, DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIMITING CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREES, SHOWING ONLY OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS NEAR
THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND CONTINUES TO SHOW AMANDA STEADILY
WEAKENING OVER THE WEEKEND, THEN DEGENERATING INTO A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW LATE SUNDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 12.7N 134.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 12.4N 135.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 12.0N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 11.4N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 11.0N 136.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/1800Z 10.8N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0600Z 10.5N 138.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0600Z 10.0N 140.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0600Z 9.3N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER GIBBS
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