289
WTPZ41 KNHC 061502
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012026
500 AM HST SAT JUN 06 2026
THIS MORNING'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONSISTS OF A SHEARED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A RECENT COLD CLOUD TOP (-77C) BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION JUST WEST OF AMANDA'S SURFACE CENTER. A 0902 UTC
OCEANSAT-3 SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS REVEALED ONLY A COUPLE OF 35 KT
WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH WINDS BELOW TROPICAL STORM
FORCE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. ACCORDINGLY, THE WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THE OCEANIC SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM (27-28C), UNDERCUTTING EASTERLY SHEAR, A SURROUNDING
DRY/STABLE AIR MASS, AND UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT
ANY CHANCE OF STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUBSEQUENTLY,
GLOBAL MODEL-SIMULATED/IR SATELLITE FORECASTS INDICATE THAT AMANDA
WILL PRODUCE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
CENTER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK; HOWEVER, THE CLOUD PATTERN SHOULD
LACK ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE, AMANDA IS PREDICTED TO
DEGENERATE INTO A VERTICALLY SHALLOW REMNANT LOW BY LATE SUNDAY IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE SOUTHWEST, OR 215/4 KT.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF AMANDA SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH MID-NEXT WEEK. THE
NHC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE GFS AND ECMWF SIMPLE CONSENSUS, THE HCCA
CORRECTED-CONSENSUS, AND THE GDM FNV3 ENSEMBLE MEAN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 12.5N 134.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 12.2N 135.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 11.6N 135.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 11.2N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/1200Z 11.0N 136.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 09/0000Z 10.8N 137.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/1200Z 10.6N 138.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1200Z 9.9N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1200Z 9.3N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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