244
WTPZ41 KNHC 062034
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012026
1100 AM HST SAT JUN 06 2026
SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING, DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AMANDA HAS
WEAKENED AND SEPARATED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DUE TO EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE SYSTEM BECOMING A
SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. A TIMELY 1737 UTC ASCAT-B
OVERPASS REVEALED A PEAK WIND OF 27 KT. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO POSSIBLY GENEROUS 30 KT.
CONTINUED EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND A DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DESPITE THE SYSTEM REMAINING OVER SSTS OF 27-28C. THOSE WARM
WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE SYSTEM PRODUCING INTERMITTENT
BURSTS OF CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, BUT THEY ARE LIKELY
TO BECOME LESS AND LESS ORGANIZED, RESULTING IN AMANDA BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 36-48 HOURS.
AMANDA IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OR 215/4 KT. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEER IT SOUTHWESTWARD OR
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST
LIES NEAR THE LATEST GOOGLE DEEP MIND ENSEMBLE MEAN AND HCCA
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 12.3N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 11.9N 134.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 11.4N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 11.1N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/1800Z 10.9N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 09/0600Z 10.7N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/1800Z 10.4N 139.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1800Z 9.8N 141.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BROWN
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