947
WTPZ41 KNHC 070836
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012026
1100 PM HST SAT JUN 06 2026
AMANDA REMAINS A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS QUICKLY ON
THE PATH TO BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW. CONVECTION HAS
REMAINED SPORADIC AND CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. AN
OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASS SAMPLED WINDS UP TO 29 KT NORTHWEST OF
THE CENTER, WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS. BASED ON
THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.
AMANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, OR 210/3 KT. A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, AND THE
NHC FORECAST TRACK IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIMITING ORGANIZATION, DESPITE THE WARM SSTS
ALONG THE TRACK. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND AMANDA IS
EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS
BEFORE DISSIPATING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0900Z 11.7N 135.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 11.4N 135.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 11.1N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/1800Z 10.8N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/0600Z 10.5N 138.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 09/1800Z 10.2N 139.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/0600Z 9.9N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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