975
WTPZ41 KNHC 071446
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012026
500 AM HST SUN JUN 07 2026
ALTHOUGH AMANDA'S CIRCULATION ONCE AGAIN BECAME EXPOSED TO THE
EAST OF THE SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN OVERNIGHT, DEEP CONVECTION HAS
REDEVELOPED OVER THE SURFACE CENTER. RECENT METOP-A/B SCATTEROMETER
OVERPASSES INDICATED JUST A FEW 30 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT, AND THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS
DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY
AND AGREES WITH TAFB'S DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
AMANDA IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 4 KT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY DRY/STABLE AND SHEARED SURROUNDING
ENVIRONMENT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AND AMANDA SHOULD CONTINUE IN THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH OCEANIC SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG AMANDA'S PATH
ARE WARM (27-28C), FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE
INHIBITING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE GLOBAL MODEL SIMULATED/IR
FORECASTS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT AMANDA WILL LOSE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION SOON, AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT WITH
THE CYCLONE DEGENERATING INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 11.5N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 11.2N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/1200Z 10.9N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/0000Z 10.6N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/1200Z 10.2N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 10/0000Z 9.9N 140.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1200Z 9.7N 141.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER ROBERTS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page